the Probability row in the trade performance summary does not add up.

[hdge4u]

If the "Probability" row in the Trade Performance Summary of your NinjaTrader platform is showing a value of 0.14% and you have taken a total of 167 trades with 90 winning trades, it is possible that there may be an error in the calculation or the value may not have updated correctly.

Based on the formula for calculating the Probability, which is the number of winning trades divided by the total number of trades, the probability of a winning trade in your case would be:

Probability = (Number of Winning Trades) / (Total Number of Trades) Probability = 90 / 167 Probability = 0.5393 or 53.93%

Therefore, if you have a 53.93% win rate, it is unlikely that the Probability row would show a value of only 0.14%. You may want to double-check your calculation or contact NinjaTrader support for assistance in resolving any issues with the platform.

please advise
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[NinjaTrader_Jesse]

Hello hdge4u,

The Probability statistic is one that does not have a specific formula documented which means this is an internal only calculation. I wouldn't be able to say if the formula you provided is what is being used. The description of the formula includes the standard deviation and students t-distribution as part of the logic to calculate that value so there is likely more to it than what you provided.

Understanding Probability

Probability
This statistic determines how likely a trade is to occur that would return the same PnL as your Avg. trade. This is based on how many trade's PnL fall within a standard deviation of the Avg. trade. Student's t-distribution is used to find probability.

https://ninjatrader.com/support/help...sub=statistics

If you wanted to calculate the proabality with the formula you have given you could create a custom performance metric: https://ninjatrader.com/support/help...ce_metrics.htm

[QuantKey_Bruce]

Hello hdge4u,

The Probability statistic is one that does not have a specific formula documented which means this is an internal only calculation. I wouldn't be able to say if the formula you provided is what is being used. The description of the formula includes the standard deviation and students t-distribution as part of the logic to calculate that value so there is likely more to it than what you provided.

NinjaTrader_Jesse Shouldn't the formula be documented? Unless this is a NinjaTrader secret formula, and it does not sound like it is, it should probably be described accurately so that users can understand whether it applies best to their situation.

[NinjaTrader_Jesse]

Hello QuantKey_Bruce,

That would be up to development to decide what is able to be documented. What is able to be documented is put in the help guide.

[StrongLikeBull]

If the "Probability" row in the Trade Performance Summary of your NinjaTrader platform is showing a value of 0.14% and you have taken a total of 167 trades with 90 winning trades, it is possible that there may be an error in the calculation or the value may not have updated correctly.

Based on the formula for calculating the Probability, which is the number of winning trades divided by the total number of trades, the probability of a winning trade in your case would be:

Probability = (Number of Winning Trades) / (Total Number of Trades) Probability = 90 / 167 Probability = 0.5393 or 53.93%

Therefore, if you have a 53.93% win rate, it is unlikely that the Probability row would show a value of only 0.14%. You may want to double-check your calculation or contact NinjaTrader support for assistance in resolving any issues with the platform.

please advise
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"Probability" on Strategy performance is not win rate. Probability is defined as "This statistic determines how likely a trade is to occur that would return the same PnL as your Avg. trade. This is based on how many trade's PnL fall within a standard deviation of the Avg. trade. Student's t-distribution is used to find probability."

Percent Profitable is what you want (win rate)

Regardless, I think the value that is presented is wrong. 87.5% win rate with my strategy and the probability is 0.14% as well.

[hdge4u]

i've just given up on those metrics and calculate my own. i have been a lifetime license holder for more than 7 years. its always been wrong or a mystery to me, so i paid not attention to the value.

[hdge4u]

Hello hdge4u,

The Probability statistic is one that does not have a specific formula documented which means this is an internal only calculation. I wouldn't be able to say if the formula you provided is what is being used. The description of the formula includes the standard deviation and students t-distribution as part of the logic to calculate that value so there is likely more to it than what you provided.



https://ninjatrader.com/support/help...sub=statistics

If you wanted to calculate the proabality with the formula you have given you could create a custom performance metric: https://ninjatrader.com/support/help...ce_metrics.htm

now that t stats have entered the conversation, its all meaningless to me from here.

[QuantKey_Bruce]

When it comes to something like a performance metric, if it isn't a documented formula it might as well not be in there. Performance metrics seem to me to be a special case in that this is in large part how traders decide whether to trust a strategy. I don't think a black box performance metric would find widespread acceptance or maybe even any acceptance.

[hdge4u]

When it comes to something like a performance metric, if it isn't a documented formula it might as well not be in there. Performance metrics seem to me to be a special case in that this is in large part how traders decide whether to trust a strategy. I don't think a black box performance metric would find widespread acceptance or maybe even any acceptance.

great perspective. i wonder how legit the r square metric is. pretty sure that ones documented. i realize that NT is fairly straight forward at the GUI level and that if i find myself looking longer than 5 minutes, it makes sense to ask for clarity. NT benefits outweigh the costs. now coding...is another matter.