Strategy Builder - Probability Factor

[pattern]

The win / ratio is not bad on this but the probability factor is low. Does that mean the scenarios are not likely to happen even though the win ratio shows the results? What can be done to improve the probability?

[NinjaTrader_Emily]

Hello pattern,

Thank you for your post.

Probability is defined in the help guide as follows:
"This statistic determines how likely a trade is to occur that would return the same PnL as your Avg. trade. This is based on how many trade's PnL fall within a standard deviation of the Avg. trade. Student's t-distribution is used to find probability."

https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt8/statistics_definitions.htm

Your average trade shows in the screenshot as $24.90. The probability of 0.87% is how likely a trade's PnL will match within a standard deviation of your average trade. To improve the probability, I suggest making adjustments to your strategy's logic and re-testing after each change to see if the probability goes up or down after the change. This can help you to see which parts of your logic affect the trades taken and how they influence the probability. Ultimately, that is a very dynamic and involved question that really can only be answered by testing your strategy and variations of your strategy further and comparing/contrasting the differences in results.

Please let us know if we may be of further assistance.