Backtest vs Optimization vs Playback

[timmbbo]

I'd like to better understand which has the best predictive value for strategy performance?

Throughout the forum, I see lots of posts bemoaning how back testing can bear little resemblance to future performance. Likewise, I then read NT's well-crafted replies on the difficult of mimicking the real-time environment, and what one can do to better chances.

1) In general, a Playback provides a higher indicator of future performance over Backtest and Optimization, correct?
2) If I ran a backtest using a 1 tick interval, with fill resolution set to high, in theory is that equivalent to performing a playback (since the playback is also one tick at a time)?

Thanks,

[NinjaTrader_BrandonH]

Hello timmbbo,

Thanks for your post.

Yes, the Playback connection could be used with Market Replay data to get more accurate strategy performance results.

See the 'Understanding how playback works' section of this help guide page for more information: https://ninjatrader.com/support/help...8/playback.htm

Otherwise, you could consider implementing 1-tick intrabar granularity in your script, enabling Tick Replay, and programming your strategy to submit orders to the added 1-tick series.

See this forum thread for more information about intrabar granularity: http://ninjatrader.com/support/forum...297#post491297

And, please review the help guide document on the differences on real-time vs backtest (historical).

https://ninjatrader.com/support/helpGuides/nt8/discrepancies_real-time_vs_bac.htm