problem with monte carlo draw downs

[younglion]

Hi

When I back test my strategy from aug 4, 08 to the present, i get a max drawdown of 57.10 points with 4552 trades. Then when I run a monte carlo simulation I get the chart attached. It says I have a 0% chance of loosing less than 66.6 points or at least a 1% chance of loosing less than 67 points. Am I ready this right? how is this possible ?

Thanks

tom

[NinjaTrader_Bertrand]

Tom, a Monte Carlo simulation will randomize your trade sequences to attempt minimizing the 'luck factor'. On the returned chart you see the percentages of simulations and their outcomes in terms of DD seen, so you can determine the relationship between best / worst outcomes and their probablity to occur. If we take for example the 50% mark, you can see that half of the simulatons yielded a DD of > 110 to shy under 70, while the other half ranged from -110 to -210.